Latest TVSpot purchasing cost trends and its trend forecast by SPI Index in 2015

SPI, which encourages “optimizing marketing ROI” and “achieving transparency / accountability”, has analyzed the TVSpot cost trend in the latest Japanese market.
It has been concluded that:
1, +4% inflation in 2014 against 2013
2, Costs in 2015 are forecasted to remain at the same level as during the total year of 2014

1, +4% inflation in 2014 against 2013

■The trend of SPII ndex = TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in theJapanese market


＊However, there are huge differences in advertisers by area and station.

2, Costs in 2015 are forecasted to remain at the same level as the total year of 2014

●SPI Index forecast, Methodology

• Indices used for the trend forecast: SP IIndex and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index)
  SPI found a strong correlation between the SPI Index and the TOPIX.
• A key finding in SPI’s analysis is that the trend of the SPI Index follows that of TOPIX 9 months later.
  The analysis indicates that the general business market trend that appears in such indexes as TOPIX could affect advertising spending, and the trend is reflected in the SPI Index that showcases the balance between the demand and the supply in the overall advertising industry.
• SPI Index & TOPIX show the weighted trend that excludes seasonality and noise by SPI’s analytic/mathematical-modeling.
• See the graph of SPI-analysis regarding the correlation between the SPIIndex and TOPIX

●SPI Index Forecast analysis with the correlation-analysis between TOPIX and SPI Index by SPI

●What is the “SPI Index” for Cost Analysis ?
・Definition of the SPI Index
・1st step＝SPI Index-basecost
SPI Index-basecost(=All advertiser’s average)　＝　Total TVSpot sales　÷　Total TVSpot GRP
・2nd step= Adjusting “SPI Index-basecost” for each Spot-buying condition by “SPI’s datapool”
SPI Index-basecost×SPI-adjustmentINDEX(due to SPI-datapool from Y1995/over100advertisers & 1,000cases)
↓
SPIIndex（TVSpot cost benchmark for each TVSpot buying condition）

Shiro Kokue
Senior consultant

Please contact us with questions or for more detailed information.
spiindex@spi-consultants.net