Latest TV Spot Purchasing Cost Trends and Trend Forecast by 2016 SPI INDEX

SPI, a pioneer of strategic/statistical media planning/analysis and the media buying audit sector in Japan, encouraging optimization of marketing ROI and the achievement of transparency / accountability, has analyzed the TV Spot cost trends in the latest Japanese market, utilizing SPI INDEX = TV Spot cost benchmark (market average) in the Japanese market.

●What is the “SPI INDEX” for Cost Analysis ?
SPI INDEX is the TV Spot cost benchmark (market average) in the Japanese market. It was originally de-veloped by SPI, referring to Sales and GRP of All TV Spots and SPI’s TV Spot cost data pool (mining me-dia buying costs of over 100 advertisers).

We have concluded:

• Slight deflation occurred from January to October of 2015
• Total costs in 2015 were forecast to remain at the same level due to inflation in November and De-cember
• Costs during the first half of 2016 were forecast to be inflationary against the previous year, then the inflation was halted during the second half

＊However, there are huge differences in advertisers by area and station.

1) Slight deflation during January-October 2015
2) Total costs in 2015 forecasted to remain at the same level due to inflation in November and De-cember

■The trend of SPI INDEX = TV Spot cost benchmark (market average) in the Japanese market

3, Costs during the first half of 2016 were forecast to be inflationary against the previous year, then inflation was halted during the second half

●SPI INDEX forecast, Methodology

• Indices used for the trend forecast: SPI INDEX and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) SPI found a strong correlation between the SPIINDEX and the TOPIX.
• A key finding in SPI’s analysis is that the trend of the SPI INDEX follows that of TOPIX nine months later.
  The analysis indicates that the general business market trend that appears in such indexes as TOPIX could affect advertising spending, and the trend is reflected in the SPI INDEX that show-cases the balance between the demand and the supply in the overall advertising industry.
• SPI INDEX & TOPIX show the weighted trend that excludes seasonality and noise as per SPI’s analytic/mathematical modeling.
• See the graph of the SPI analysis regarding the correlation between the SPI INDEX and TOPIX

●SPIINDEX Forecast analysis with the correlation analysis between TOPIX and SPIINDEX by SPI

Shiro Kokue (Senior Consultant)
Ayumi Watanabe (Assistant PR Manager)

Please contact us with questions or for more detailed information.
spiindex@spi-consultants.net