Latest TVSpot purchasing cost trends and its trend forecast by SPIINDEX for Y2020

SPI, a pioneer of strategic/statistical media planning/analysis & Media buying audit sector in Japan, encouraging “optimizing marketing ROI” and “achieving transparency / accountability”,
has analyzed the TVSpot cost trend in the latest Japanese market, according to “SPIINDEX = TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market”.

●What is the “SPIINDEX” for Cost Analysis?
…SPIINDEX is the “TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market”.
…It is originally developed by SPI, which refers to “Sales and GRP of All TV Spots” and “SPI’s TV Spot cost-datapool (mining media buying costs of over 130 advertisers from Y1995)”

It has been concluded that:

• Costs in Y2017/1-12 rise totally almost 0% against the previous year
• Inflation ratio in Y2017/1st-half was +2%, however, it has been canceled in Y2017/2nd-half
• Costs in Y2018 is forecasted to be same or slight-inflation against Y2017, then slight inflation until beginning of Y2020

＊However, there are huge differences in advertisers by area and station.

1, Costs in Y2017/1-12 rise totally almost 0% against the previous year
2, Inflation ratio in Y2017/1st-half was +2%, however, it has been canceled in Y2017/2nd-half

■The trend of SPIINDEX = TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market

3, Costs in Y2018 is forecasted to be same or slight-inflation against Y2017, then slight inflation until beginning of Y2020

●SPIINDEX forecast, Methodology

• Indices used for the trend forecast: SPIINDEX and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index)
  SPI found a strong correlation between the SPIINDEX and the TOPIX.
• A key finding in SPI’s analysis is that the trend of the SPIINDEX follows that of TOPIX 9~15 months later.
  The analysis indicates that the general business market trend that appears in such indexes as TOPIX could affect advertising spending, and the trend is reflected in the SPIINDEX that showcases the balance between the demand and the supply in the overall advertising industry.
• SPIINDEX & TOPIX show the weighted trend that excludes seasonality and noise by SPI’s analytic/mathematical-modeling.
• See the graph of SPI-analysis regarding the correlation between the SPIINDEX and TOPIX

●SPIINDEX Forecast analysis with the correlation-analysis between TOPIX and SPIINDEX by SPI

Shiro Kokue: Partner / Senior consultant
Ai Ono: Analyst
Aimi Kobayashi: Assistant

Please contact us with questions or for more detailed information.
spiindex@spi-consultants.net